Venezia vs. Fiorentina Tips and Odds – 12/05/2025

• Fixture: Venezia vs Fiorentina
• Date: Monday, 12 May 2025
• Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Venice, Italy

Match Preview

Venezia welcome Fiorentina to the iconic Stadio Pierluigi Penzo for a crucial Serie A clash as the season nears its conclusion. With Venezia battling to escape the relegation zone and Fiorentina pushing for a European finish, both sides have everything to play for on Monday evening. The lagoon city will be buzzing as Eusebio Di Francesco’s men seek a vital home win, but Raffaele Palladino’s Fiorentina arrive as favorites and with a point to prove after recent disappointments.

Venezia’s recent form has been a mix of resilience and frustration. Their last outing saw them earn a 1-1 draw against Torino, following a 2-2 draw with Udinese and a narrow 1-0 win over Cagliari. However, these results have not been enough to lift them out of the bottom three, as they currently sit 18th with just 26 points from 35 matches (4 wins, 14 draws, 17 losses). Venezia’s main issue has been their lack of firepower, managing only 28 goals all season, and their home record is worrying-they’ve scored 31% fewer goals at home than expected, averaging just 0.9 goals per game. Defensive lapses have also hurt them, conceding 49 times, and they have kept only six clean sheets in the league.

Fiorentina, on the other hand, are coming off a heartbreaking exit from the UEFA Conference League semifinals, drawing 2-2 with Real Betis in Florence but losing 4-3 on aggregate. In Serie A, their recent form has been steady but unspectacular, with a 0-1 loss at Roma, a 2-1 win over Empoli, and a 2-1 win at Cagliari in their last three league matches. Currently 8th in the table with 59 points, Fiorentina have scored 53 goals and conceded 35, boasting a much stronger attack and a tighter defense than their hosts. Their away record is solid, having scored 15% more goals than expected on the road.

Team news could play a significant role. Venezia are missing key defender Michael Svoboda and Richie Sagrado through injury, which further weakens a backline already under pressure. Fiorentina will be without right-back Dodô and midfielder Edoardo Bove, both sidelined. However, Fiorentina’s squad depth, particularly in attack and midfield, should help them cope with these absences.

Key Players

• Venezia
  • Jay Idzes: The captain and defensive anchor, crucial for organizing a depleted backline.
  • Hans Caviglia: Venezia’s leading scorer (3 goals), also providing assists and energy from midfield.
  • Gianluca Busio: A creative presence in midfield, tasked with linking play and creating chances.
• Fiorentina
  • Moise Kean: The standout striker with 17 league goals, a constant threat for opposition defenses.
  • Dodô: Normally a key attacking full-back (5 goals, 7 assists), but ruled out, so his absence will be felt.
  • Robin Gosens: Versatile and experienced, contributing both defensively and going forward (5 goals, 4 assists).
  • Luca Ranieri: The captain and defensive leader, vital for keeping Venezia’s attack quiet.

Prediction

Given the contrasting form and quality between the two teams, Fiorentina are favorites to take all three points. Venezia’s struggles in front of goal and defensive injuries make their task even harder, while Fiorentina’s superior firepower and away form should see them through. Expect Venezia to fight hard, especially at home, but Fiorentina’s class and motivation for a European spot should be decisive.

Prediction: Venezia 0-2 Fiorentina

Betting Markets & Odds

Fiorentina’s attacking edge and Venezia’s defensive issues point towards an away win, with the under 2.5 goals market also appealing given both teams’ scoring trends.